Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026)
Articles

Real options and strategic investment decisions under uncertainty in an SME expansion project in Ecuador

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  • Dayanis Garcia Hurtado,
  • Marcia Karina Ipiales Paredes,
  • Carmen-María Queiro-Ameijeiras
Dayanis Garcia Hurtado
Universidade de Brasilia
Marcia Karina Ipiales Paredes
Universidad Internacional de Valencia
Carmen-María Queiro-Ameijeiras
Universidad Internacional de Valencia

Published 2026-05-30

Keywords

  • Real options,
  • investment analysis,
  • Black-Scholes

How to Cite

Garcia Hurtado, D., Ipiales Paredes, M. K., & Queiro-Ameijeiras, . C.-M. . (2026). Real options and strategic investment decisions under uncertainty in an SME expansion project in Ecuador. JOINETECH, 2(1), 83-92. https://doi.org/10.65479/joinetech.40

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Abstract

This study evaluates the financial and strategic viability of expanding a gastronomic business through the opening of a new branch in Quito, Ecuador, under conditions of uncertainty. Traditional investment appraisal methods, such as Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), are combined with a real options approach to provide a more comprehensive evaluation framework. While conventional techniques offer a static perspective of expected cash flows, they fail to capture the value of managerial flexibility in dynamic and uncertain environments.

To address this limitation, the Black-Scholes model is applied to estimate the value of strategic flexibility associated with the investment decision. The results indicate that the project is financially viable, with a positive NPV and a high IRR. Additionally, the real options valuation reveals a significant strategic premium, reflecting the value of flexibility in adapting to market conditions.

The findings highlight that incorporating real options into investment analysis enhances decision-making by capturing uncertainty and strategic adaptability. This approach is particularly relevant for sectors such as the gastronomic industry, where market volatility and external risks play a critical role. The study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the practical application of advanced financial methodologies in emerging market contexts and supports more resilient and informed investment decisions.

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